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The Geopolitical Game in the Face of Russia’s Weakness
Peter Kopa, Prague, July 3, 2026
Details on War Casualties
Ukrainian sources report nearly 1.25 million Russian casualties (killed and wounded) as of February 2026. And studies such as the one by the CSIS estimate 1 million Russian casualties (killed or wounded) as of June 2025. However, including the statistical gray area—which goes beyond official tallies—since the start of Putin’s four-day “military operation” in 2014, Russian casualties are approaching 1.5 million men. Ukrainian casualties are estimated at around 600,000 soldiers.
Russia is suffering excessive casualties not only due to a lack of training and equipment, but also because of outdated tactics and incompetent leadership. The serious issue is that, over the past three months, Russian casualties have exceeded the number of new recruits, reaching approximately 1,000 killed per day.
Therefore, Russia faces an uphill battle in defeating Ukraine. This point is acknowledged even within the Kremlin, where the consequences of this decline—which are far more severe than we in the West realize—are well understood. The Russian nuclear threat could become a reality in the face of a desperate defeat, based on the logic that “since we’re going to die anyway, let everyone else die too.” Putin has hinted at this on more than one occasion.
Russia lost between 25 and 30 million people in World War II, both on the battlefronts and through mass purges for political reasons or man-made famines. That was only ninety years ago, so Russia’s population has still not been able to recover. The total Russian losses since 2014 result from adding the 1.5 million killed in Ukraine to the estimated 2 million men who have fled Russia to avoid mandatory military service.
The Russian Economy in Crisis
The Russian economy has entered a downward spiral with no apparent way out. The state budget is in deficit, with all reserves depleted, and its main economic productivity is being drained by oil wells, refineries, and port cargo infrastructure. Attacks penetrating ever deeper into Russian territory are causing a dramatic drop in sales of gas, oil, and other raw materials. And trade isolation from the West prevents Russia from purchasing a whole range of items necessary for weapons production.
The demographic contraction
Putin’s solution to the demographic decline—and the shortage of men in the workforce—is to import immigrants. But where can one find men willing to emigrate to such a battered country? In the Central Asian steppe and the Turkestan region, where there is a total population of over 30 million people, all of whom are Muslim.
Birth rates? The Russian rate is below 1, while the Muslim rate hovers around 6 children per household. Therefore, the long-term problem is a profound redefinition of Russian culture. Currently, Muslim migrants are on the verge of radicalization due to low wages, poor living conditions, and the degrading treatment they receive from native white Russians.
Geopolitical Relevance of Russian Weakness
Although Russia and China outwardly project a strong alliance, it is based on the interests both parties have in the political game. Gradually, China is becoming a dragon ready to subjugate Russia politically and economically as soon as the relationship between the two reaches a critical point of asymmetry. The Chinese approach, in this regard, is slow and patient, waiting for its ally to bleed heavily to the point of having to accept the dominance of the stronger party.
https://thinktanklatam.org/latinoamerica-bajo-el-vasallaje-chino/
This form of “diplomacy” draws on millennia of Chinese wisdom and is applied to virtually all politically or economically significant countries. The groundwork involves a long period of financial and ideological infiltration through NGOs, schools, the media, and so on. This process is in full swing, particularly in Latin America and Africa. https://thinktanklatam.org/china-intenta-controlar-el-mundo/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nwQl61Run4
Right now, we are seeing China’s reluctance to help Iran, because closing the Strait of Hormuz would cause oil prices to skyrocket—oil that China buys from Russia at a discount to resell at a healthy profit margin. Russia, like China, is also not in a position to embark on new military support ventures, except for the sale of weapons and some technical assistance. Both competitors are looking for ways to take advantage of the neglect and weakness of the Arab countries. They likely have a secret pact for cooperation and dividing up the spoils, provided the U.S. allows it.