Rapprochement between Russia and China

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCctN5xrWBM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXsFtgE7BSo

We offer a review of an article by Brian G. Carlson, director of the team ‘Globale Sicherheit im Think-Tank des Center for Security Studies an der ETH Zürich’ (Team for Global Security in the Think-Tank of the Center for Security Studies at the Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich), which appeared in the Neue Zuercher Zeitung on 23.5.2021.

China and Russia have been moving ever closer together in recent years. This means that Europe must take more responsibility for its own defense. Although Beijing and Moscow have not formed an alliance, they are increasingly collaborating on diplomatic and security issues. Their positions on many international questions are similar; in the UN Security Council they often take the same positions. They are also expanding their defense cooperation. The sale of sophisticated Russian weapons to China and an impressive series of joint troop and naval maneuvers demonstrate this.

This allows Beijing and Moscow greater room for maneuver to consolidate their respective spheres of regional influence. Coordinated Sino-Russian action in Europe is at best limited, but individually both countries are acting in ways that could affect the security of the region. (Estrategia china para controlar el mundo)

Both China and Russia are modernizing militarily, which puts the United States at a disadvantage in the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions and makes it difficult to protect its allies. An eventual war against either country, in certain scenarios, either with Russia in the Baltics or against China over Taiwan, would cause immense difficulties for the US. The greatest risk for Washington is a war waged on two fronts simultaneously. In any case, China’s growing influence is forcing the US to devote more attention, resources and military assets to the Indo-Pacific region. This means that Europe must increasingly look after its own security.

The cost of leading countries’ militaries

In billions of dollars per year (2019), calculated using purchasing power parity exchange rates. Source: CSS ETH ZurichNZZ / A.R.

USA         731.5

China       441.8

Russia      160.4

France       60

Germany   59.8

Great Britain   56,7

Strategic trends 2021

China and Russia have grown even closer in recent years as their relations with the West have deteriorated. But this is not the only driver of their cooperation. Given the vulnerability of its Far Eastern neighbors, Russia cannot afford a break with China. At the same time, China would do well to seek an amicable relationship with Russia, if only because of tensions with several of its neighbors.

In 2020, Moscow and Beijing’s relations with the West suffered further setbacks. In Russia’s case, the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Nawalny with the chemical agent Novichok provoked outrage in the West. And the corona virus pandemic dealt a severe blow to China, with Western politicians and public opinion accusing the country of covering up the outbreak and trying to evade responsibility. Meanwhile, Sino-Russian relations remained intact. In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated that he might even consider a future alliance with China.

Western governments are watching these developments with growing concern. For NATO, Russia remains a major challenge because of its accumulation of conventional and nuclear weapons. Added to this are the influence operations with which Moscow wants to shift opinion in its favor and divide Western societies. Unlike Russia, China is not a direct military threat to Europe. But Beijing can implement means of cyberwarfare or try to gain influence in the old continent through technological capabilities in areas such as artificial intelligence. Finally, China plays an important role in major supply chains, which also allows it to exert influence in the West.

The weakness of the USA

Recently, there has been growing evidence that the United States may have difficulty defeating even a single one of the two powers. In numerous simulations of confrontation between the USA and its allies against China or Russia, the US-led coalition forces suffered heavy defeats. It turned out, for example, that defending Taiwan against a possible attack by the People’s Republic of China would prove very difficult. Moreover, NATO could lose in its military attempt to defend the Baltic countries.

It is true that the United States still has a clear advantage in terms of total military resources. However, in regional scenarios, for example, in a warlike conflict in the Taiwan Strait or in the Baltic States, China or Russia would have the advantage of their geographical position. Russia has recently supplied sophisticated weapons to China, such as the S-400 air defense system and Su-35 fighter jets.

Russia uses the proceeds from arms sales to China to fund military research and development, thereby increasing its arms technological power. More importantly, China’s growing military capabilities, thanks in part to modern weapons from Russia, are shifting U.S. attention and military resources to the Asia-Pacific region. This is affecting U.S. efforts to ensure security in Europe. (La situación geopolítica de Rusia )

Former General Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. forces in Europe between 2014 and 2017, warned as early as 2018 that the U.S. could find itself in a war with China within the next fifteen years. Therefore, a strong European pillar within NATO is important for the security of the old continent, he said. “The U.S. does not have the capacity to do everything it would have to do in Europe and in the Pacific to deal with the Chinese threat,” he said.

Expecting opposition between Russia and China is unrealistic

The United States and its European allies have several options for dealing with these geopolitical realities. Some observers advocate improving U.S.-Russia relations to prevent Moscow’s ties with China from growing too close. They argue that, in the long run, the United States could even involve Russia in a coalition against China. Many of them believe that the United States should withdraw its troops from Europe, focus on Asia and let Europe take care of its own security.

Indeed, Western policymakers should look for ways to contain the Sino-Russian partnership. However, this seems unlikely to succeed in the near future. After all, both Russia and China value their partnership highly and are unlikely to be willing to give it up. In these circumstances, the United States remains committed to resisting aggression from either China or Russia. But this approach depends heavily on the cooperation of U.S. allies.

President Biden has pledged close cooperation with partners and has signaled that he is prepared for confrontation with China and Russia on a range of issues. His administration says it is firmly committed to NATO and wants to win over Europe to U.S. policy toward China. Allies in Europe welcome Washington’s renewed commitment to transatlantic relations. However, a common approach to China and Russia is not easy.

As German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently pointed out, the United States and its European partners do not always pursue the same interests. Germany resists Biden’s notion of a contest against the powers of China and Russia, in which Western democracies would be trapped. German support for the EU’s comprehensive investment agreement with China and the Russian Nord Stream 2 pipeline demonstrates Berlin’s desire to separate economic and security objectives.

In addition, recent debates on European strategic autonomy complicate the transatlantic dialogue. In French President Emmanuel Macron’s view, Europe can no longer rely on the United States to defend its NATO allies, partly because its attention is inevitably shifting to China. That is why he is calling for the creation of an independent army. So far, however, little progress has been made in this regard. German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer believes that Europe’s strategic autonomy is an illusion, as Europe will remain dependent on U.S. security guarantees for the foreseeable future, especially protection by nuclear deterrence.

The rise of China will force the U.S. to focus on Asia in the coming years. The United States will continue to support NATO, but European countries will have to make a major contribution to the transatlantic partnership by increasing their defense spending and becoming more engaged in NATO to ensure their own security of Europe. 

Editorial comment

The above study omits to mention the deep crisis in which the USA is plunged in the sense that from the Biden administration an unexpected pressure is promoted to impose the new ideologies, which keep among themselves a coherence based on atheistic materialism, common to all of them, and, therefore, destructive of the traditional vision of the human individual, whose spiritual soul and eternal destiny confers him an inalienable dignity. Therefore, right now in the USA an unprecedented ‘Kulturkampf’ or struggle of cultures is taking place, with diffusion to the other Western countries. Curiously, also here most governments tend to identify with the line of thought of BLM, LGBT, genderism, sexualization of children, etc.