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Lack of wheat could kill 200-300 million people
Peter Kopa, Prague, 17.6.2022 – Recension
The war in Ukraine is severely diminishing the export of wheat, as almost 30% of its export takes place in the Black Sea ports. Russia has so far blocked this flow, so important for human food, to enforce the cancellation of economic sanctions against it. The food of 400 million people in various parts of the world depends on this wheat, while in the port of Odessa the silos of wheat, corn and barley are full to bursting ¿Colapso global de la cadena de suministro?
The risk of famine
More than 250 million people around the world are already on the brink of starvation, because the huge increase in grain prices could lead to serious shortages that will punish 1.6 billion people worldwide. The wheat harvest in Ukraine this summer is expected to be only 20 million tons, 12 million less than in 2021, due to the war. Even so, Ukraine needs half of it for itself, thus being able to export the remaining amount.
The alternative of transporting the wheat by land to the seaports of Gdansk and others would be very expensive and very limited, and the port capacity in Romania is too small. But despite these difficulties, Ukraine managed to export 1.5 million tons of grain to the EU by land, and is expected to double that by the end of this summer.
Russia has to open Black Sea ports
This issue is being brokered by Turkey, but it is not known when the way will be clear. Another problem are mines laid in the sea, which will first have to be cleared. The Russians have so far confiscated about 500,000 tons of wheat, most of which was sent to Syria, a Russian ally.
Russian wheat
The US Ministry of Agriculture estimates that Russia will export in 2021/2022 33 million tons of wheat, as of the end of June. There are no sanctions against Russia in this type of foreign sales. However, Russia has blocked grain exports to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, which are Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus. La situación geopolítica de Rusia
Countries hardest hit by wheat shortages
In Southwest Asia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, which are the main importers of Ukrainian and Russian wheat, are suffering from this problem. However, these countries are able to defend themselves thanks to their own rice production, which yields twice as many calories as wheat per unit of cultivated area.
The situation is much worse in Africa and the Middle East, where bread has no substitute, with the aggravating factor that these parts of the world cover most of their wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. This dependence can be as high as 90%, according to John Baffes, an expert in agricultural economics at the World Bank. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, supplies more than 80% of its wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. Libya also imports 43% and Yemen 23% from both countries.
The countries that suffer the most are those that have no wheat crops of their own and are also the poorest, depending heavily on wheat imported from the Black Sea: Yemen, Afghanistan, Syria, Ethiopia. The Tschad has declared itself in a state of eminent urgency in this regard. The United Nations World Food Program has said that 276 million people worldwide are in serious danger of starvation and that in 2022 there will be low harvests due to drought in China and India. The latter country has been harvesting 100 million tons of wheat so far, but has had to block exports this year.
Similar problems prevail in southern Africa, which is facing an unprecedented drought that will reduce wheat production by 20% to 50%, depending on the region.
Source of our review: N. Z. Zeitung in German, Zuerich, 14.6.22
Editorial comments
The problem of the wheat shortage is further aggravated by the fact that Russia had always covered 40% of world exports of fertilizers, without which world agricultural production could drop by 30%. These are nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, the export of which is suffering from the consequences of the economic sanctions imposed on Russia. We are therefore facing a delicate situation, which should be well known to governments, because it encourages speculation in order to gain margins in the oscillation of prices on world stock exchanges, and also in the physical marketing of both agricultural products and fertilizers. Once again, is probably the multinationals that will provoke the moves in the markets and it is to be hoped that the formation of cartels and monopolies, which would be responsible for the starvation of millions and millions, will not be tolerated.
Thus we see how control over food production can be a terribly effective weapon, both in the hands of certain governments and in the hands of multinationals. It is worth remembering here the giant famine caused by Stalin, which cost the lives of 25 million people precisely in Ukraine, which has the most fertile land in the world.
It remains to be seen whether the globalists, Soros, Gates, WHO etc., faced with the problem of hunger, will distribute bread as they have done so far with vaccines. Their campaigns against tetanus, in Africa, Peru and the Caribbean, have sterilized millions of women in the process, due to substances added to the anti-tetanus agent.
