Trump and Putin, two lions in the arena

Trump and Putin, two lions in the arena
Peter Kopa, Prague, 13.2.2025

Breaking news: yesterday, 12.2.2025 Trump and Putin spoke on the phone for ninety minutes, after almost six years. They both agree to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible and resolve the matter directly between them.
Previous observation:
Sources for this article have also been think tanks in Moscow, which offer English translation by clicking on the option or by asking Google Translate in the right-hand corner of the screen. We have found very important data mainly in the NZZ in Zurich, and in previous articles of ours.

Political context

The last time Trump and Putin saw each other face to face was in July 2018. Since then, a lot has happened and the three-year war in Ukraine, with almost a million deaths, is giving rise to a very special chemistry between the two lions seeking world hegemony. The war highlights an astonishing fact: it is clear that holy Russia has no experience of an attack war, as the rapacious eagles of NATO have, leading the Ukrainian forces, because both Napoleon and Hitler have succumbed in Russia to the natural trap of the cold and the distance to reach Moscow. This explains why Russian generals send a continuous stream of soldiers and supplies to the front, with the idea of the enemy’s final exhaustion. This was seen in 1943 at Stalingrad. Russia has such reserves of resources that it would have to win the war by the other side’s pure exhaustion.

China, for its part, gives the impression of being the great vulture sitting on a dry branch, secretly rejoicing that Russia is bleeding to death, because it knows how to take political advantage of its weakness. And this makes Taiwan not so important anymore, while the Middle East is trying to stop its own war under Trump’s orders.
Jeffrey Sachs, the most prestigious guru in politics in the USA, tells us that it was the USA that caused the war by breaking the 1991 agreement, in which the USA undertook not to extend its influence beyond the eastern borders of the Warsaw Pact countries.

It does not appear that Russia will extend the war to the West, because it would have to confront Poland and Finland, and perhaps Belarus, which is showing signs of abandoning its traditional obedience to Russia, seeing the Russian attrition. But, on the other hand, we must not forget that, for Russia, war is holy: https://thinktanklatam.org/rusia-proclama-la-guerra-santa/

What’s going on between Trump and Putin?

For weeks there had been speculation about when Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump would speak on the phone. Palace journalists on both sides exaggerate any information, creating expectations that are annoying, especially for Putin and his people. This secrecy benefits both sides. As long as it was not known if any contact existed, public confrontation with reality was also delayed. Are Russian-American relations really experiencing a renaissance? Or is it an illusion and Trump’s slogan “America first” is just the unpleasant association with Hitler’s “Deutschland über alles”, which Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently felt obliged to recall? https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/ustav-oon-lavrov/.

Many Russians like Trump and his political style because they like his somewhat brutal and direct way of tackling problems. Trump’s “conservative counter-revolution”, with his concept of freedom, is precisely what they like. Trump could eclipse Putin, especially since the United States has more to offer than Russia.

It is enough for Putin that Ukraine becomes his vassal.

Putin has repeatedly flattered Trump, as when he recently said that the 2020 presidential election had been stolen from him. In addition, on Tuesday he granted Trump a diplomatic success with the release of an American citizen who had been imprisoned in Russia for more than three years. Professor Mark Fogel was released as part of a mediation mission by Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff.

This has consequences for the debates on a peaceful solution for Ukraine. Trump’s assertion that he would never have allowed this war, and his conviction that the United States must put an end to it, play in Putin’s favor. But until 12.2.25 he remains passive and observant, perhaps hoping that the war events will offer him more advantages for the negotiation of peace.

Putin wants to definitively neutralize Ukraine, which in his opinion has become an “anti-Russian” threat. The priority is not to gain territory beyond the already annexed territories, as long as Ukraine follows Russian political guidelines. In domestic policy, this would mean a Russification; and in foreign policy it would bring security with neutral Ukrainian status and a minimal army. The most radical forces want to divide Ukraine or even annex it to Russia, except for the rebellious western Ukraine. https://profile.ru/abroad/kakoj-dolzhna-stat-ukraina-posle-zaversheniya-rossijskoj-specoperacii-1635806/

Therefore, a mere ceasefire agreement is not enough for Moscow; what Russia wants is to root out the causes of the conflict. Russian officials have the impression that Washington does not fully understand this point, which would bring a new security order for Europe. For Trump it is a “ridiculous war” that is causing too many casualties. Putin, on the other hand, sees it as an existential confrontation on which the very destiny of Russia depends.

Putin reveals patience

It is still not clear whether Trump and his collaborators have understood that, given the military situation and the lack of internal pressure in Moscow, Russian leaders are not particularly interested in peace at the moment. In the economy, the disturbances are increasingly evident. The Kremlin cannot ignore them indefinitely. They are also reflected in the barometer of public concerns. https://www.levada.ru/2025/02/07/predstavleniya-o-naibolee-ostryh-problemah-rossijskogo-obshhestva-yanvar-2025/. However, inflation is at the top of the list. Only a third of the population is concerned about the “special operation”, although the majority would welcome an end to the war. At the same time, the repression of dissidents is so widespread that Putin has nothing to fear for the moment in terms of domestic policy.

Precisely for this reason, Trump may be willing to give Putin a lot of leeway. Moral and security concerns should not worry him too much. His special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, took note of Putin’s doubts about the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and called on Kiev to hold elections no later than the time a ceasefire was reached. However, elections in such a fragile environment could shake up Ukraine’s political fabric, which would please the Kremlin very much.

Trump, for his part, demanded access to Ukraine’s rare earths in exchange for his multi-million dollar support for the warring nation. He said in passing that he was not sure that Ukraine would not join Russia, thus demonstrating how little he cares about the essence of this war. https://x.com/atrupar/status/1889094509713031207?mx=2 .