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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQXHc-tJMXM
Prague, November 2018
In Munich, Uwe Sunde, a renowned economist who has published a scientific article in the Journal of Population Economics, is researching and creating consternation: ‘Demographic Dynamics and Long-Run Development: Insights for the Secular Stagnation Debate’. Under this title, his conclusions respond to the common sense of many non-specialists in the field: that the economic downturn since 2008 is ultimately due to the birth deficit, especially in the most prosperous countries. For many years, this was a hot potato in the hands of politicians and scientists, because it would have forced them to recognize major errors and to review social and family policy.
Uwe Sunde explains this with his concept of crossing the demographic threshold, which is that initially there was greater longevity and later there was a drop in births. For a short period, this led to more vocational training and greater per capita wealth, but then economic growth slowed down. For this reason, we are still below the economic productivity levels of 2008 and it seems difficult to recover the lost ground in the short term.
This process can best be seen in Western countries, where, however, globalization has so far made it possible to maintain a relatively high level of economic prosperity, also because rich countries have been able to take advantage of lower-cost labor in emerging countries. But the gradual increase in this cost – for example, the rise in the cost of labor in China – is eroding this advantage.
Another favorable factor is technological progress, but it remains to be seen when it will manifest itself in the statistics. According to Sunde, Western countries have reached the peak of their economic growth in the period from the end of World War II to 2008. As is well known, the birth deficit is causing big problems also in China and in any other country where people have made the bad business of preferring a car, a career or a vacation in exchange for children. This process has painful consequences, especially for pension and welfare systems, and generally contributes to higher taxes, which in OECD countries are already close to 50%, if VAT is included.
And we have yet to see the impact of the high cost in the fight against Islamic terrorism and of keeping hundreds of thousands of Arab and African fugitives in Europe, until they start to be productive in their work and become culturally and socially integrated in our world.
Source: Neue Zuercher Zeitung, Switzerland -Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
